"I don't understand why people are so down on "everyone" around them getting engaged... Weddings are (or should be) an absolute blast.”That was my friend Caroline on Facebook last week. Her post seemed timely - it is wedding season after all. But her post referred to an interesting tide that had been rising in my newsfeed - the backlash against “everyone getting married”. So I thought to myself is everyone our age actually married? Has the potential dating pool dried up?Social data is a great barometer for this sort of thing. People openly declare their relationship statuses, location, age, etc. giving us an easy to follow paper trail to decipher the availability of the people around you. That’s how we know that someone that’s in an “Open Relationship” is most likely to live in California. Go figure.So I cracked open our data base of tens of thousands of Facebook Id’s, likes, locations, genders and did some digging. The graph below tracks what percent of our database was single, married, etc. between the ages of 20 and 30. (Fig. 1.1) To the surprise of no one, it’s really good to be young and single. 59% of our sample declared themselves single at the age of 20. While those highs will never be reached again in our lifetime, 33% of people my age (27) declare themselves single, at 29 its 26%. That means that about 1 out of every 4 people is technically available to “grab dinner” or “come over to my place to watch a movie”.

But there are ton of factors that can impact these numbers. The pressure to get married is totally different at every socio economic level. So in an effort to level the playing field, I looked at the composition of people in their 20’s by education level. Fig. 1.2 Just as you’d suspect, these numbers become much more evenly divided when you control for education. People who declare a high school education are 14% more likely to be married in their 20’s, and the more education you get, the more likely you are to be in a relationship but not married.

Personally I’m really lucky – I got to attend a four year university and graduate with a degree. What that means for my personal social network is that the vast majority of my friends also went to college. Caroline, the girl who loves weddings, actually went to college with me. So that means that about a third of our friends are available. While it is true that fifth of our peers are already married, there is still a ton of availability.But education is not the only factor. Geography (and the culture that follows it) is huge. Check out the relationship composition of New York, LA, and Texas. One of these things certainly is not like the other. Fig 1.3 Texas at 52%! Fully half of the population is married! Interestingly, less people are in a relationship. But with a single population of 30% it hasn’t impacted the “market” of single people. A single person in Texas faces the same relative odds as someone in a NYC or California.

Although it does seem like you will be meeting their parents a lot quicker. Fig.1.4 If we’re going to take the “market” metaphor a step further, any good market needs both buyers and sellers. That means (usually, although it should be noted not always) an even mix of males and females. The graph below breaks down the % share of the singles market that males and females owned. Interestingly, the graph mirrors my own experience. In my early 20’s I couldn’t get a date (when females were high demand) and then in my late 20’s I was able to meet a nice girl and settle down (roles switched and males become a hot item). Little did I know that it was the market and NOT my lucky shirt that got me a girlfriend.

In summary, thanks our Facebook Application data base we know that we will never again see a dating scene like our early 20’s. But the current state of things isn’t too bad – if getting married is a priority you can always move to Texas.Want more tips and tricks for how to dominate social this year with Data, Creative and Amplification? Download our 2016 Social Media Survival Guide.